Hi Bex. I'd be happy to publicise my account stats, because this is either bugged or i'm terribly unlucky. My account name is Pyromancer4.
- My Atlas Exploration challenge shows a grand total of 509 maps completed
- I am doing ultimatums in every single map i run, since the mechanic is fun and profitable. I also fully complete all waves in my ultimatums since i'm very petty and don't like the trialmaster talking shit about me. I also do not skip stone circles.
- My build rarely fails ultimatums because ice nova aoe overlap is very strong to clear dense packs. And most of my failed ultimatums were before red maps, where my build wasn't reaching it's full potential. But to give you guys the benefit of the doubt, lets say I failed 10% of every ultimatums i encountered.
- I used the popular "leapfrog" method to reach red maps as quickly as possible. Which means that getting my first 16 watchstones at 3 maps per conqueror cycles took me 48 maps. I'm happy to remove those from the total.
- I did actually encounter the trialmaster once. It was one of my first ever red map, from zana actually. I was still running a 5 link and my build wasn't at it's full potential, so I lost.
So my total T11+ maps completed would be (509*0,9)-48, which equals to roughly ~410 maps. Note that the odds are heavily stacked in your favor, since i am not counting any zana map or any conqueror map in this calculation, and i'm assuming every map is T11, but in reality most of them are probably T14+ since i rushed to endgame. Even assuming the ~100 maps average and removing 100 maps for my first trialmaster spawn, i'm still 3 times above the worst-case average, or 6 times above the best-case average.
If anyone can point me to any error in my assumptions or my math, i'd be happy to correct the post. Thanks for reading.
EDIT: Added a line specifying i do not skip stones circles, since people might ask me this.