Hello r/lastepoch,
As I am sure you have seen, Heartseeker is looking very good but I wanted to mathematically analyse the effect of extra recurve chance and Shadow Weaver's Grasp nodes. You can enter your own inputs to this Desmos graph calculator I made and create your own scenarios. Without further ado here are some values:
| Recurve Chance | # of Curves w/o SWG | of Curves w/ SWG | 97.5th Percentile w/o SWG | 97.5th Percentile w/ SWG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 2.7549 | 3.3547 | 5.6970 | 9.5797 |
| 125% | 3.7548 | 4.3546 | 6.6970 | 10.5797 |
| 150% | 4.5237 | 5.1389 | 7.6792 | 11.5700 |
| 175% | 5.1559 | 5.7904 | 7.7134 | 11.5801 |
| 200% | 5.7978 | 6.3986 | 8.6951 | 12.5732 |
| 225% | 6.2919 | 6.9467 | 8.7226 | 13.5607 |
| 250% | 6.7979 | 7.3987 | 9.6952 | 13.5732 |
| 275% | 7.1936 | 7.8026 | 9.7165 | 13.5807 |
| 300% | 7.6183 | 8.2509 | 10.6846 | 14.5727 |
As you can see while SVG does give ≈0.6 recurves no matter your recurve chance on average and ≈4 recurves when you get quite lucky, it also introduces immense variance due to long streaks of getting lucky. But since there is no downside to this node I am not sure why someone would decide not to take this since SWG was only a single node away from the starting node on Karv's stream. If the skill has multiple more damage multipliers on its tree then this skill could very well become The Single Target skill for Marksman.